Roads End, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

757
FXUS66 KHNX 110929
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
229 AM PDT Tue Mar 11 2025

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. An Atmospheric River is favorable Wednesday into Thursday
with significant precipitation for all of interior Central
California.

2. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for the Sierra Nevada
due to heavy snowfall Tuesday night through Thursday night and
a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Lower Sierra
Nevada for the same time period, and for the Kern County
Mountains, including the Grapevine from Wednesday afternoon
through Friday morning.

3. A High Wind Warning has been issued for the Mojave Desert
Slopes and a Wind Advisory has been issued for the Kern County
Desert due to strong winds in both areas from Wednesday morning
through Friday afternoon. The High Wind Watch remains in effect
for the West Side Hills.

4. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected for the Sierra Nevada
Foothills during the course of this system, and moderate
rainfall can be expected for the San Joaquin Valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A strong upper low moving towards Baja California is swinging
some showers up into Kern County early this morning. This system
is expected to just produce some light rainfall for the Kern
County Mountains and Desert today. The probability of
measureable rain ranges from 40 to 70 percent for Kern County
through the evening hours.

Tonight a quick moving ridge early before the next, more
significant impact system, trough moves into Golden State and
tracks across the state exiting early on Friday. A wide variety
of impacts across all of Interior Central California throughout
this system.

Kern County Desert and Mojave Slopes wind impacts. The
probability of exceeding (PoE) of 60 mph ranges from 40 to 70
percent on Thursday. Out in the desert the PoE of 45 mph ranges
from 20 up to 70 percent from east to west across the Kern
County Desert continuing into Friday along with the West Side
Hills. High Wind warning for the Slopes and wind advisory for
the desert look on track no adjustments at this time needed.

No adjustment needed for Sierra snowfall. The 10th percentile,
the lowest amount expected, comes in at 20 to 30 inches above
4000 feet for a storm total with the 00Z run. The high end, 10
percent chance, falls around 50 inch amount. The forecast in
feet is very appropriate with this event and the Winter Storm
needs no changes. The snow advisory for the Kern County Mountain
passes and Tejon Pass the low end is near zero and the high end
3-4 inches. The PoE of 2 inches or more for the passes ranges
from 37 percent for Tejon Pass ranges down to 16 percent for
Tehachapi Pass. The wind and falling snow more than well justify
the winter weather advisory highlight.

Looking at 12 hour rainfall totals for the peak of the event on
late Wednesday through Thursday first with a tenth of an inch.
The PoE for a tenth lowest on the West Hills side of the San
Joaqin Valley with 15 to 40 percent with the downsloping wind.
On the east side of the valley 30 to 60 percent. The 24 hour PoE
of 1/2 inch on the west side of the valley 25 to 60 percent
with the period ending at 5 PM on Thursday and 50 to 90 percent
for the east side of the valley. The PoE of one inch of rain for
the foothills ranges from 90 to near 100 percent for the
Wednesday and Thursday time frame. Looking at in low and high
amounts taking Mariposa as the point of reference. The 24 hour
precipitation range for the peak of the event from 5 AM
Wednesday through 5 AM Thursday 1.49 to 2.66 inches of rainfall.

The burn scars may have to contend with a threat of
Thunderstorms on the back side of the event Thursday with
probability of thunderstorms at eight to twelve percent. A low
end probability. Strong mid-level lapse rates and low end CAPE
along with TQ-Low top index all pointing a slim chance for
storms. This could enhance rainfall briefly.

The upper low helps carve out a large base trough over the
western CONUS with northwest flow over California with waves
shooting through the flow Friday into Saturday for more showers
across the region. A quick ridge for Sunday then the next system
arrives from the Pacific Monday last through next Tuesday for
another event for the area.

Temperature wise for the rest of the week into the weekend will
be below normal with the very cold core system moving through.
Sunday and Monday a trend up to closer to normal.

The 6 to 10 day long range continues the below normal
temperatures and above normal precipitation. As the forecast
moves to 8 to 14 days the below normal temperatures continue
however precipitation moves closer to normal for the season.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update:

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the central
California interior for the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  03/10/2025 13:56
EXPIRES: 03/11/2025 23:59
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 11 AM Wednesday to 5 PM PDT Friday for
CAZ338.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 5 PM PDT Friday for
CAZ337-339.
High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday
evening for CAZ300-301-304-305-308-309-313.
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM PDT
Thursday for CAZ318-320-322.
Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM PDT
Thursday for CAZ323>331.
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM Wednesday to 5 AM PDT Friday
for CAZ333>336.
&&

$$

Operations...Proton
DSS..........DCH

weather.gov/hanford