Roads End, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

391
FXUS66 KHNX 122041
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
141 PM PDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. An Atmospheric River storm system will bring significant
precipitation for all of interior Central California from late
this afternoon through Thursday evening.

2. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the Sierra Nevada
due to heavy snowfall and a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect
for the Lower Sierra Nevada and for the Kern County Mountains,
including the Grapevine.

3. A High Wind Warning is in effect for the West Side Hills and
a the Mojave Desert Slopes. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the
western San Joaquin Valley and the Kern County Desert.

4. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected for the Sierra Nevada
Foothills during the course of this system and moderate rainfall
is expected across portions of the San Joaquin Valley.

5. There is a slight chance for thunderstorms on Thursday with
potential for locally heavy rainfall, small hail, strong wind
gusts, and frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery indicating a deepening upper
longwave trough around 130W approaching the CA coast. As this
feature continues to move eastward, it will pull up a deep
moisture fetch which will shift southward into our area late
this afternoon and this evening. The main impacts from this
will be moderate to heavy precipitation in the Sierra Nevada and
adjacent foothills, strong gusty winds along the West Side
Hills, the western portion of the San Joaquin Valley, the Mojave
Desert Slopes and the Kern County Desert areas. Snow levels
will be around 6000 feet late this afternoon as the
precipitation moves into our area and lower to around 3000 feet
by Thursday morning as a cooler airmass pushes into central CA.
The cooler airmass will also provide for enough instability and
CAPE for a slight chance of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon
and evening across much of our area with the WRF indicating
LI/s between -4 and -2 DEG C across most of the San Joaquin
Valley and CAPE between 200 and 500 J/KG. Daytime temperatures
are expected to be well below normal across our area on Thursday
and Friday.

QPF progs are still indicating the most of the San Joaquin
Valley will pick up between a quarter and three quarters of an
inch of rainfall by Thursday evening although thunderstorms
might produce locally higher amounts. The PoE for a half inch
of rain across most of the San Joaquin Valley by 500 PM PDT
Thursday is between 60 and 95 percent and the PoE for one inch
of rain across most of the Sierra Foothills by 500 PM PDT
Thursday is between 90 and 100 percent. The Excessive rainfall
Outlook shows a marginal risk (between 5 and 14 percent) for
flash flooding over the Sierra Foothills on Thursday. The
precipitation will be mainly in the form of snow over the
higher Sierra Nevada where 1 to 3 feet of new snow is expected
above 6000 feet and 6 to 12 inches of new snow expected between
3000 and 6000 feet. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect
the the higher Sierra Nevada and a Winter Weather Advisory
remains in effect for the higher Sierra Foothills until 11000 PM
PDT Thursday. Snow is also expected to impact the Tehachapi
Mountains through Friday morning and a Winter Weather Advisory
is in effect between 500 PM PDT this afternoon and 500 PM PDT
Friday morning as travel along the major passes could be
disrupted.

Winds have already picked up along the West Side Hills and are
expected to increased by this evening along the Mojave Desert
Slopes where High Wind Warnings remain in effect and Wind
Advisories have been posted for the western San Joaquin Valley
and the Kern County Desert areas.

The trough is progged to move to the east of our area by
Thursday night as an approaching shortwave system acts as a
kicker as it moves across Norcal on Friday. This system is
expected to bring some additional precipitation to our area
with up to a tenth of an inch of rainfall in the San Joaquin
Valley and up to a quarter inch of rainfall across the Sierra
Foothills as well as a few more inches of snowfall over the
higher Sierra Nevada. A shortwave ridge will then move inland
into central CA on Friday night and bring drier conditions to
our area on Satruday.

The medium range ensembles are showing another system moving
through central CA and bringing more rain and mountain snow to
our area between Sunday evening and Monday evening although
precipitation amounts are progged to be much lower than the
system that will impact our area tonight and Thursday. The
ensemble means are showing a more pronounced ridge over central
CA by midweek which will shift the storm track to the north of
our area and provide our area with drier conditions and more
seasonable temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z:

For the Sierra Nevada, adjacent foothills and Tehachapi Mountains,
widespread MVFR and mountain obscuring IFR in low clouds and
precipitation. Becoming widespread mountain obscuring IFR by 03Z
Thu and continuing through 24Z Thu.

For the San Joaquin Valley and West Side Hills, Areas of MVFR
in low clouds and rain thru 24Z Thu.

For the Kern County portion of the Mojave Desert, Probability of
surface winds gusting above 35 knots at 70-90 percent. Areas of
MVFR in low clouds and rain between 06Z Thu and 24Z Thu.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 5 PM PDT Friday for CAZ338.
Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT Friday for CAZ337-339.
High Wind Warning until 8 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ300-304-308-
313.
Wind Advisory until 8 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ301-305-309.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ318-
320-322.
Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ323>331.
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT
Friday for CAZ333>336.

&&

$$

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